9.9% Inflation: What the IMF's Latest Warning Means for Pakistan's Families

Every year the IMF tells us something new about our economy, and every year the story is the same: things will get more expensive before they get better. This week's World Economic Outlook report was no different. The Fund now says Pakistan's inflation will hit 9.9% in this fiscal year — up from the 8.4% it predicted back in April. Growth, meanwhile, stays stuck at 3.5%. Let me translate those numbers into the language of our kitchens. The government had set an inflation target of 8.2% and a growth target of 4%. The IMF does not believe either number. When the lender of last resort says your prices will rise nearly 10%, what it really means is that the poorest families will feel it first and worst. And we already feel it. On October 14, the government cut petrol by Rs 2.71 to Rs 392.66 per litre. Forgive me, but when petrol costs almost 400 rupees a litre, a cut of less than three rupees does not feel like relief. It feels like a joke — except nobody is laughing at the petrol pump. The government also introduced a scheme to give Rs 2,000 a month to motorcyclists and Rs 3,000 to small-car owners to soften the fuel burden. The IMF has already objected, calling the scheme broad-based and expensive. I understand the government's idea — people are genuinely struggling with fuel costs. But I also understand the IMF's worry: a country that goes to the lender again and again cannot keep handing out money it does not have. That is the part that hurts the most to admit. The IMF did not give specific reasons for raising our inflation forecast, but it raised the same warning for the whole Middle East and Central Asia region because of the ongoing conflict and its effect on energy prices. Pakistan imports its oil. When the world burns, our prices rise. We are not masters of our own economy — we are passengers in it. Here is what I think nobody in power wants to say plainly: 9.9% inflation with 3.5% growth means our wages will keep losing the race against prices. It means the State Bank will probably keep interest rates tight, which means loans stay expensive for everyone from small shopkeepers to home buyers. The next monetary policy review is expected on October 26, and most people expect a hike, not a cut. I am 20 years old. My generation is entering working life in an economy where the price of everything goes up and the value of our salaries goes down. We are told to work hard and trust the reforms. But reforms die with every new government, and the numbers keep getting worse. The IMF's report is not an attack on Pakistan. It is a mirror. And the face in the mirror is a country that has gone to the lender more than twenty times and still has not learned to stand on its own feet. Until we fix that — until we collect our taxes honestly and build exports instead of excuses — no forecast will ever bring good news.